Consumer Mindset - May 2025
Consumer confidence in May has steadied, after the dramatic decline seen in April 2025.
May has seen an improvement in the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Index to 60.8 (compiled in partnership with Core Research), adjusting slightly upward from the downward trend seen over the last two months, moving up +2.1 points from 58.7, albeit well below average levels for the past 18 months.
With tariffs dominating this month’s Cultural Index stories, it is of no real surprise that we see this recent adjustment, with the widely publicised introduction of reciprocal tariffs, the dramatic impact on stock and bond markets and only a week later their suspension - which may or may not see through to its full term, ending on 8th July.
This recovery following the pause in reciprocal tariffs, appears to have eased some of the pressure on general economic outlook. However, overall sentiment remains markedly more negative than the levels observed in 2023 and 2024.
As Irish households navigate these uncertainties, the contrast between actual economic indicators and anticipated risk continues to influence public sentiment, both in terms of consumer behaviour and the broader economic environment.
As we see in this month’s Consumer Mindset report, the resulting gap between economic reality and public perception underscores how susceptible the consumer mindset can be to international political and economic dynamics, with consumers being mainly stressed and fed-up with the recent news cycle. The continuing concerns around cost of living, often driven by media portrayal, rather than direct financial pressures, highlights the necessity for clear and balanced reporting and a steady perspective.
This opposing direction of resilience and external pessimism continues to highlight the growing emotional dissonance - people feel steady in their own lives, where they have control, but uncertain about the wider world, where concern exists.
The concepts of the Circle of Control, Influence, and Concern were popularised by Stephen Covey’s "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People“. This concept, rooted in cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) is widely used as a management and personal development tool, It appears the public have instinctively taken on board this approach in the face of uncertainty and the fear of unknown future. We’ve been through crisis in recent times and our resilience - or is it practicality - is coming to the fore.
As an open economy, we need to balance global influence with local requirements – a difficult equation to get right. We need to continue to focus on what we can control in our personal lives and within organisations, identify where we can influence and work to have an effect. We also aim to mitigate for areas of concern, where we may not be able to control, and ultimately continue to move forward, planning for the worst-case scenario and being hopeful for the best outcome.
