Budget 2026: Public Mindset towards Spending
Ahead of the publication of the monthly Consumer Mindset report, Core Research review the attitudes towards state spending. To receive the full report every month, simply subscribe to the Core mailing list.
A Quiet Budget in a Noisy Year
As the dust settles on Budget 2026, the national response has been largely muted. Economist Emma Howard of Technological University Dublin observed that the Government “outlined what economists warn is an unsustainably large increase in spending, without making many people happy.”
According to the Core Cultural Index, public interest in the Budget every year is strong - with over 70% of adults saying it is a significant event - yet Google search trends in 2025 reveal further insight. Interest has declined 17% since the pre-election Budget last year, continuing a steady fall from the post-Covid interest of 2022.
After weeks of expectation management from politicians, it appears fewer people felt personally engaged this year. But disengagement is not uniform. Core Research’s October 2025 analysis shows that people’s reactions to the Budget divide along two key psychological lines - both rooted in behavioural economics.
Spending Today vs. Investing for Tomorrow
The first line concerns time horizons - whether state spending should prioritise immediate cost-of-living relief or long-term investment. This distinction reflects present bias and hyperbolic discounting: our tendency to overvalue rewards we receive now and undervalue those promised later.
Applied to public attitudes, it explains Ireland’s split between those seeking short-term certainty and those favouring future-focused planning. In economic terms, some citizens want deliveries now; others want dividends later.
For Me or For We?
The second line distinguishes whether people believe the Budget should benefit individual households or society as a whole.
Core’s findings suggest a mild national tilt toward collective benefit, aligning with other studies showing that Irish people consistently value universalism and fairness over wealth or control.
This can be interpreted through Social Preference Theory, which expands traditional economics to include fairness and empathy alongside personal gain. Rather than maximising only their own outcomes, many Irish people factor in how policy affects others - an insight with clear implications for both politics and business strategy.
Mindsets Behind Budget Expectations
Stability Seekers: Ireland’s Cautious Centrist
The Stability Seekers form the largest share of the population (39%) - pragmatic citizens balancing household realities with cautious optimism. They are evenly split by gender, most aged 35–54, and typically middle-income (€45k–€75k) with dependents. Nearly seven in ten (68%) are very or extremely concerned about the cost of living, shaping a preference for visible fairness and competent future investment, but with individual needs.
68% agree “The state should be investing and building public housing, not rent assistance.”
66% support “Investing in health, water, and energy systems.”
62% agree “Government should increase tax credits to offset rising costs.”
56% agree “My household’s budget pressures should be the main consideration.”
They favour steady management over ideology - practical, balanced, and looking for policy that works in the real world, borne out of a personal individual perspective. As a result of their group size and their lack of enthusiasm compared to the other three groups, they pull the overall population to the unambitious middle.
Balanced Realists: The Measured Middle
At the opposite end of the long-term and individual spectrum sit the Balanced Realists (25% of adults). They value short-term spending, and form a bloc of realists concerned with what society needs today.
Slightly older (45–64) and skewing female, they cluster in social class BC1 - professionals and retirees with moderate to upper-middle incomes. Around 59% express strong concern about living costs, in line with the average, reflecting stability tempered by vigilance.
82% agree “Policies should prioritise families in poverty even if higher earners receive fewer supports.”
79% say “Government resources should first go to those most in need.”
72% support “Public spending should focus on services for all.”
Only 27% agree “I’d prefer lower income tax even if it means fewer services.”
They represent ethical pragmatism - supporting fairness, efficiency, and reform without extremes. Theirs is the mindset of Ireland’s steady, reform-minded middle.
Everyday Pragmatists: Kitchen-Table Economists
Source: AI generated
The Everyday Pragmatists (21%) live in the short-term, individual-focused quadrant - judging policy by its immediate impact on their bills. They are typically 25–44, evenly split by gender, and concentrated among renters and working families with lower to mid incomes. A full 71% are very or extremely concerned about the cost of living - the highest anxiety among all groups.
94% agree “Energy credits are necessary to help households cope with rising costs.”
94% agree “The Government should provide tax cuts so people can afford groceries.”
77% agree “My household’s budget pressures should be the main consideration.”
59% agree “I’d prefer lower income tax even if it means fewer services.”
They value practical relief over ideology - transactional but not cynical. Their focus is on policy that works now, not later.
Progressive Planners: The Future-Focused Idealists
Source: AI generated
At the far end of both indices are the Progressive Planners - younger, urban professionals who see public investment as a moral choice. Making up 15%, they are the smallest but most visionary group, driven by collective progress and social fairness. Many are 25–44, in creative or public-sector work, often in dual-income or shared households. Around 55% are very or extremely concerned about living costs - below average, reflecting relative hope.
97% agree “We should invest in health, water, and energy infrastructure.”
92% agree “People with disabilities should receive additional assistance even if it raises taxes.”
91% agree “Policies should prioritise families in poverty.”
89% agree “The state should build public housing instead of paying rent assistance.”
They believe taxation funds progress, not bureaucracy. Progressive Planners view Government as a builder of fairness - its purpose to leave future generations better off than today.
Why These Divides Matter
The national Budget is never “one size fits all.” While it is often analysed through fiscal or demographic lenses, these findings show that psychological and value-based mindsets are equally important.
For brand and organisational leaders, recognising these mindsets can help tailor messages and decisions that resonate across Ireland’s diverse public. As the cost-of-living crisis persists and long-term investment (e.g. housing) debates prevail, the divide between “me vs. we” and “today vs. tomorrow” will shape both policy reception and consumer sentiment.
Understanding how each group thinks - from the anxious pragmatism of the Everyday to the visionary optimism of the Progressive - is now essential for anyone trying to lead, persuade, or rebuild trust in Ireland’s complex economic landscape.
